Research Areas > Wetlands > Estuary Modeling

Research Area: Estuary Modeling

A key challenge of water quality management is accounting for the variability and uncertainty associated with pollutant fate and transport in aquatic systems. Computational models are a valuable tool in addressing these issues because they allow a broad range of scenarios to be simulated, that would otherwise be difficult to sample in a field setting. This allows managers to bound the expected ranges of variability associated with seasonal and climatic changes. Users can also identify which factors have the potential to most affect pollutant behavior. Furthermore, models allow numerous management scenarios to be evaluated virtually, which provides improved information for decisions regarding resource allocation.

SCCWRP Research

Successful development of estuary models relies on several factors. First, high quality data describing the physical system and environmental conditions must be compiled or collected. Second, key data gaps that drive uncertainty in model output must be identified, evaluated, and resolved. Third, appropriate calibration and validation data must be compiled to ensure that the model reflects real world conditions. Next, sensitivity is evaluated to define confidence in the simulations.

The goal of SCCWRP's modeling research is to develop and validate state-of-the-art modeling approaches for application to management scenarios. Models are used to investigate and quantify key processes that affect management actions. Model performance is validated using field data, and findings from modeling applications are lastly transferred to the management community.

SCCWRP modeling efforts focus on tracking pollutants from their sources to their aquatic end point. Examples of estuarine modeling projects include:

• San Gabriel Estuary Modeling - model that simulates freshwater and large point sources mixing in a confined estuary.
• Effect of Climate Change on Southern California Coastal Wetlands - estuary models to investigate potential effects of climate change and sea level rise.