Case study completed for how to quantify uncertainty in coastal OAH modeling tools

A research team that has been modeling how land-based nutrient discharges into Southern California coastal waters influence ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) has completed a case study demonstrating how to quantify uncertainty, or error, in the modeling tools’ predictions.

The case study, completed in December and undergoing final review prior to publication as a SCCWRP technical report, has helped engage a technical subcommittee of the SCCWRP Commission’s Technical Advisory Group (CTAG) in focused discussions about what additional work is needed to improve existing methods for quantifying modeling uncertainty.

These consensus-building conversations are critical as coastal ocean managers weigh how much confidence to place in the OAH modeling tools’ predictions, as well as decide if and how to use the predictions as a basis for taking management actions in response to intensifying coastal OAH.

In a parallel effort, the modeling team has expanded its quality assurance documentation for the modeling tools. This new documentation, published in December as a SCCWRP technical report, is intended to enhance transparency and understanding of how the tools are being used; it also is expected to serve as the basis for a modeling Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) that the State Water Board is planning to develop.