Validation methods updated, enhanced to guide performance evaluations for coastal OAH modeling tools

A research team that has been modeling how land-based nutrient discharges into Southern California coastal waters influence ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) has updated the evaluation methods it is using to validate the performance of the OAH modeling tools – a key step toward increasing community confidence and acceptance of the tools’ predictive capabilities.

The method updates, completed in September and reviewed by a subcommittee of the SCCWRP Commission’s Technical Advisory Group (CTAG), call for evaluating the modeling tools against a wider range of ocean processes and leaning more heavily on real-world measurements – including data from moored sensors and underwater gliders – to gauge how well the tools predict real-world conditions.

This effort aligns with recommendations from an independent panel of scientific experts that reviewed the OAH modeling work in 2024.

Researchers will apply the updated modeling validation methods to existing model simulations spanning 1997-2017, with a goal to improve documentation of the tools’ performance and identify priority areas for further evaluation; the findings are expected to be presented to the independent expert panel when it is reconvened next year.